A mathematical model NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund developed says that the Green Bay Packers are the team most likely to win the NFL Super Bowl this year. According to Frelund’s model, the Packers have a 19.3% chance to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The top-seeded NFC side has a 13-4 record and is led by Aaron Rodgers, who even though not in top form, is still considered as one of the front-runners for the MVP. The top-seeded Packers, of course, won’t play in the Wild Card Round, and that increases their chances of winning the Super Bowl on February 13 even further.
Chiefs, Bucs, and Bills Close Behind the Packers
2019 Super Bowl winners, the Kansas City Chiefs are also in with a chance according to Frelund’s mathematical model. The Chiefs have a 16.8% probability to repeat their 2019 heroics and they will do their best to make it a third Super Bowl appearance in a row, after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year.
The Bucs may have won the Super Bowl last year, but the mathematical model only ranks them as third favourites this year, behind the Packers and Chiefs. Tom Brady’s team has a win probability of 11.4%.
However, even though Frelund’s model doesn’t give them the best chances to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy this year, the Bucs are always a threat. The quarterback will do everything he can to win his record eighth Super Bowl. However, first, the Bucs will have to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round.
The Buffalo Bills are behind the Bucs and have an 11.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Bills clinched AFC East for the second year in a row and will be fancying their chances of winning the Super Bowl too. However, they will first have to beat the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round.
Titans, Cowboys, and Bengals – the Dark Horses
The Tennessee Titans are the fifth favourites to win the Super Bowl. The Titans have a 10.5% chance to triumph but will need to carry their impressive regular season form into the playoffs. Because they are top-seeded, like the Packers, they too will not play a Wild Card game.
The Dallas Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals are sixth and seventh on the list of favourites with chances of 7.5% and 5.9% respectively.
The Cowboys used to be the most decorated NFL team in history but were dethroned by the Patriots and Steelers. If they are to win the Super Bowl, they would do that for the first time in 26 years.
In contrast, the Bengals don’t have much to show for when it comes to Super Bowl wins or appearances. The Cincinnati team has only been in the Super Bowl twice and has never won it.
The Outsiders
Frelund’s mathematical model predicts that all the other NFL teams have much slimmer chances of winning and are all under the 5% threshold:
- Los Angeles Rams – 4.8%
- New England Patriots – 4.5%
- Arizona Cardinals – 4.1%
- San Francisco 49ers – 3.0%
- Las Vegas Raiders – 0.4%
- Philadelphia Eagles – 0.3%
- Pittsburgh Steelers 0.3%
The Raiders, Eagles, and Steelers have minuscule chances of winning the Super Bowl, and it’s easy to see why. They all got to the playoffs in the last minutes of the regular season, and neither team produced impressive performances.
